Wondering where Ambuja Cement’s share price could land over the next decade?
Our base-case model projects the stock climbing from today’s ₹ 552 to ~₹ 1,584 by FY 2035, with an intermediate mark of ~₹ 899 by FY 2030 and a month-by-month glide-path laid out for every year in between. In short, Ambuja has the head-room—and the balance-sheet—to potentially triple in value if earnings compound at the steady double-digit pace we expect.
To show you how we arrive at those numbers, this article walks through a connected, step-by-step framework:
Company Snapshot – sets the foundation with FY 2025 revenue, profit and capacity data, so you know the starting line.
Growth Drivers & SWOT – explains why those fundamentals can improve, linking infrastructure demand, green-cement premiums and Adani-backed expansion plans.
Ten-Year Price Forecast – quantifies that narrative into bear, base and bull targets, tying directly back to earnings-growth and valuation assumptions introduced earlier.
Monthly Road-Map Tables – bridges the long-term forecast to practical, near-term checkpoints, giving traders and investors actionable milestones.
Street Consensus & Risk Checks – contextualises our view against broker targets and outlines the macro or regulatory speed-bumps that could derail it.
Investor FAQs – stitches everything together, answering the biggest “what-about” questions that arise from the data and forecasts above.
Ambuja Cement Share Price Target
Company Overview
Metric (FY 2025)
Value
Why it matters
Revenue
₹ 35,044 cr
Steady top-line growth (5-yr CAGR ~5 %)
Net Profit
₹ 5,145 cr
Margins expanding on cost savings
EPS (diluted)
₹ 17.0
Fuels valuation re-rating
Installed capacity
100 + MTPA
Crossed the century mark in April ’25
Target capacity by FY 2028
140 MTPA
Adani roadmap to consolidate market share
Quick read: Ambuja is now the country’s second-largest cement maker; inorganic buys (Sanghi, Penna, Orient Cement) have added ~32 MTPA in just 30 months.
FY 2025 Performance Highlights
Q4 FY25 revenue ₹ 10,462 cr (+11.5 % YoY); PAT ₹ 956 cr (-9 % YoY) as one-offs normalised.
Full-year margins held at 22 % EBITDA, thanks to blended fuel strategy and ACC logistics synergies.
Net cash ₹ 10,000 cr provides dry powder for the next capex cycle.
Growth Drivers (Why the Street Is Still Bullish)
Infrastructure super-cycle: Union budget capex + state housing push keeps utilisation rising.
Ambuja Cement Share Price Target 2035 – Detailed Outlook
Month 2035
Target ₹
January
1427
February
1437
March
1448
April
1459
May
1470
June
1482
July
1493
August
1505
September
1516
October
1528
November
1539
December
1584
How Our Numbers Compare with the Street
Brokerage (Apr–May 2025)
Call
12-mo Target
Key trigger
Motilal Oswal
Buy
₹ 620
Cost savings & price discipline
Prabhudas Lilladher
Buy
₹ 658
100 MTPA milestone, volume recovery
Consensus (Trendlyne, 9 analysts)
—
₹ 653
Median one-year view
Our base-case one-year target of ₹ 571 is slightly below consensus, giving investors a margin of safety while still implying ~3.5 % upside plus dividends.
Key Risks to Monitor
Fuel and pet-coke volatility: Every ₹ 200/t rise can trim EBITDA margin by ~120 bps.
Cement price competition: UltraTech’s 150 MTPA ambition could cap realisations.
Carbon-compliance costs: Upcoming CO₂ caps may require ₹ 2,000 cr+ in retrofit spend.
Macro slowdown: A pause in government capex would drag utilisation below 75 %.
What is the realistic 2030 price?
Base case projects ₹ 899, but if EPS tracks the bull path, ₹ 1,197 is achievable.
Does Ambuja pay good dividends?
Yes. Payout ratio has averaged 35–40 %; FY 2025 dividend was ₹ 2.0/share.
How will the 140 MTPA plan be funded?
Management guides to use internal accruals and existing cash; no major debt raise.
Is ESG a tailwind or headwind?
Ambuja’s clinker factor is 66 % vs industry 71 %, giving it an early-mover edge on carbon intensity.
What could break the thesis?
A protracted housing slowdown or an aggressive price war in the South post-Penna acquisition.
Conclusion
Ambuja Cement is positioned as a steady compounder: double-digit earnings growth, a clear capacity roadmap, and minimal leverage. Our model suggests the stock can triple to ₹ 1,584 in ten years under conservative assumptions, with the bull scenario pointing above ₹ 2,400. Long-term investors looking for infrastructure-linked exposure with healthy cash flows may find Ambuja a compelling core holding.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult your registered adviser before buying or selling securities.
Hi, I’m Ashish, the author here. With a solid background in data analytics and statistics, I bring you straightforward insights into the stock market. I research stocks inside out, blending fundamental and technical analyses. My goal is to provide you with clear, actionable content that simplifies the complexities of investing. Join me on this journey for straightforward advice and a data-driven approach to making informed decisions in the stock market.
